National League

Ambrì-Piotta vs Lugano prediction

Ambrì-Piotta8–5–1 · Home Lugano6–7–1 · Away07:45 PMOct 31

56%win chance incl. overtime44%

Our pick

56%AMB56%AMB

Ambrì-Piotta to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.78 · projected 3–2

Our model makes Ambrì-Piotta 56% favourites at home against Lugano, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

AMBAmbrì-Piotta in 60'

47%

Tied → OTTied → OT

19%

LUGLugano in 60'

35%

Game flow

AMB 3.3 · LUG 2.9 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.9–1.0

P2 · 1.1–1.0

P3 · 1.3–1.0

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Ambrì-Piotta56%1.78
Regulation result (60 minutes)Ambrì-Piotta47%2.14
Puck lineLugano +1.569%1.46
Total goalsUnder 6.552%1.93
Both teams to scoreYes91%1.09

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Ambrì-Piotta

56%fair 1.78

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Ambrì-Piotta

47%fair 2.14

Puck line

Lugano +1.5

69%fair 1.46

Total goals

Under 6.5

52%fair 1.93

Both teams to score

Yes

91%fair 1.09

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

M. JolyAMB · 10 G in 14 GP · 14 GP10740%2.50
R. JarventieAMB · 9 G in 13 GP · 13 GP9938%2.60
J. InnalaLUG · 9 G in 14 GP · 14 GP9634%2.95
C. ThurkaufLUG · 7 G in 14 GP · 14 GP7327%3.74
T. De LucaAMB · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4323%4.26
L. FazziniLUG · 5 G in 14 GP · 14 GP5522%4.62
N. SchnarrAMB · 4 G in 14 GP · 14 GP4821%4.87
R. TannerLUG · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4120%5.04
O. LycksellLUG · 4 G in 14 GP · 14 GP4318%5.52
L. LandryAMB · 2 G in 13 GP · 13 GP2115%6.60

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Ambrì-Piotta vs Lugano?

Our model makes Ambrì-Piotta 56% favourites at home against Lugano, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

Ambrì-Piotta have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.6 and allowing 2.6 goals a game over that stretch. Lugano have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.6 and allowing 3.6 goals a game over that stretch.

Ambrì-Piotta sit 2nd, while Lugano sit 11th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Ambrì-Piotta rate 0.00 and Lugano −0.11 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.11 goals to Ambrì-Piotta. Home ice is worth about 0.29 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives Ambrì-Piotta 47% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 19%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

These teams have met 1 time recently (Ambrì-Piotta 1, Lugano 0); the latest finished Lugano 3–5 Ambrì-Piotta on 2026-09-26.

Our own lines for this game: Ambrì-Piotta −1.5 on the puck line (31%) and 6.5 total goals, with the under at 52% (6.4 projected).

Ambrì-Piotta to win, overtime and shootout included (56%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.