Ambrì-Piotta vs Ajoie prediction

Ambrì-Piotta are the pick at home against Ajoie, priced at 63% with a projected 3–2 final score.

Ambrì-Piotta hold second place and Ajoie sixth, and the ratings gap between them is real but narrow: adjusted for opposition, Ambrì-Piotta sit at 0.00 goals per game against an average team and Ajoie at −0.04, an edge of just 0.04 goals. Home ice in this league is worth roughly 0.29 goals a game, and that cushion does more of the work in tilting this game than the underlying team quality does. The result is a clear but not lopsided favourite, and the model's 3–2 projection reflects that.

Both teams arrive in similar form, which keeps the game close on paper. Ambrì-Piotta have won 3 of their last 5 while scoring 3.6 and allowing 2.6 goals a game, and Ajoie have also won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.8 and allowing 2.8 over the same stretch. Ajoie's recent scoring rate is actually the higher of the two, so the underdog's case rests on an attack that has been productive and on the small size of the ratings gap. The difference in goals allowed, 2.6 against 2.8, is thin enough that it does not separate them much.

The head-to-head sample is a single recent meeting, and it went Ambrì-Piotta's way: the latest finished Ajoie 2–3 Ambrì-Piotta on 2026-09-15, making it Ambrì-Piotta 1, Ajoie 0 in that recent series. That result fits the projected scoreline almost exactly, though one game says little about how the next one unfolds. Inside 60 minutes the model gives Ambrì-Piotta 51% and puts a tie after three periods at 20%, with overtime and a shootout deciding it from there. The market has reached a similar conclusion: once the bookmaker margin is removed, 8 bookmakers price Ambrì-Piotta at 66% on the moneyline, slightly above the model's 63%.

The gap between the two prices is small, and the home-ice allowance explains most of the favouritism rather than any large edge in adjusted goals. With Ajoie scoring 3.8 a game over their last 5, the visitors have a route to keeping this tight, and the 20% tie probability after regulation points to a game that could easily need extra time. The model's 3–2 call sits right between a comfortable home win and a one-goal finish.

The projected 3–2 score leaves Ambrì-Piotta −1.5 on the puck line short: our numbers have it coming in 37% of the time, so the one-goal margin implied by the projection does not clear that line. The projected 6.2 goals sit above the 5.5 line, and the over lands 52% against that line, a narrow lean rather than a strong one. Both markets are close to even, which fits a game the model expects to be decided by a single goal.

Ambrì-Piotta to win, overtime and shootout included, at 63%, with a projected score of 3–2.