SHL

Örebro vs Frölunda prediction

Örebro4–4–2 · Home Frölunda9–2–0 · Away07:00 PMOct 29

50%win chance incl. overtime50%

Our pick

50%FRÖ50%FRÖ

Frölunda to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.99 · projected 2–3

Our model makes Frölunda 50% favourites on the road against Orebro, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

ÖREÖrebro in 60'

39%

Tied → OTTied → OT

21%

FRÖFrölunda in 60'

40%

Game flow

ÖRE 2.5 · FRÖ 2.5 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.4–0.7

P2 · 1.1–0.9

P3 · 1.0–0.9

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Frölunda50%1.99
Regulation result (60 minutes)Frölunda40%2.53
Puck lineÖrebro +1.576%1.31
Total goalsUnder 5.561%1.64
Both teams to scoreYes85%1.18

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Frölunda

50%fair 1.99

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Frölunda

40%fair 2.53

Puck line

Örebro +1.5

76%fair 1.31

Total goals

Under 5.5

61%fair 1.64

Both teams to score

Yes

85%fair 1.18

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

M. VeronneauÖRE · 4 G in 8 GP · 8 GP4427%3.73
M. OscarsonÖRE · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3318%5.65
P. KarlkvistÖRE · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3218%5.65
B. MeijerFRÖ · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3117%5.98
G. ClarkeFRÖ · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4116%6.13
M. WestergardFRÖ · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3316%6.36
W. StachowiakÖRE · 2 G in 10 GP · 10 GP2216%6.37
M. FribergFRÖ · 3 G in 12 GP · 12 GP3315%6.57
S. FagemoFRÖ · 3 G in 12 GP · 12 GP3315%6.70
G. GustafssonÖRE · 2 G in 11 GP · 11 GP2115%6.80

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Photo credits: S. Fagemo: Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0 · Wikimedia Commons

Who will win Örebro vs Frölunda?

Our model makes Frölunda 50% favourites on the road against Orebro, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

Orebro have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 2.0 and allowing 2.6 goals a game over that stretch. Frölunda have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.0 and allowing 2.2 goals a game over that stretch.

Orebro sit 9th, while Frölunda sit 2nd.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Orebro rate −0.16 and Frölunda +0.25 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.40 goals to Frölunda. Home ice is worth about 0.39 goals a game in this league.

About 21% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Frölunda win it in regulation only 40% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 50%.

Our own lines for this game: Frölunda −1.5 on the puck line (24%) and 5.5 total goals, with the under at 61% (5.3 projected).

Frölunda to win, overtime and shootout included (50%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.