NHL

Utah Mammoth vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction

Utah Mammoth7–4–0 · Home Tampa Bay Lightning7–2–0 · Away02:00 AM UTCOct 25

51%win chance incl. overtime49%

Our pick

51%UTA51%UTA

Utah Mammoth to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.96 · projected 3–2

Utah Mammoth are the pick at 51% on the moneyline, with a projected 3–2 final score against Tampa Bay Lightning.

After 60 minutes

UTAUtah Mammoth in 60'

40%

Tied → OTTied → OT

22%

TAMTampa Bay Lightning in 60'

38%

Game flow

UTA 3.2 · TAM 3.0 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.0–1.0

P2 · 1.4–1.0

P3 · 0.9–1.0

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Utah Mammoth51%1.96
Regulation result (60 minutes)Utah Mammoth40%2.49
Puck lineTampa Bay Lightning +1.571%1.40
Total goalsUnder 6.551%1.94
Both teams to scoreYes89%1.12

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Utah Mammoth

51%fair 1.96

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Utah Mammoth

40%fair 2.49

Puck line

Tampa Bay Lightning +1.5

71%fair 1.40

Total goals

Under 6.5

51%fair 1.94

Both teams to score

Yes

89%fair 1.12

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Lines

Lines from the last game · may change

Utah Mammoth

Last game: Oct 22

Forwards

1st line7 min together
9LWKellerClayton
16CTrocheckVincent
11RWGuentherDylan
2nd line4 min together
67LWCrouseLawson
8CSchmaltzNick
92RWCooleyLogan
3rd line9 min together
72LWLeeAnders
27CHaytonBarrett
56RWYamamotoKailer
4th line8 min together
50LWButDaniil
82CStenlundKevin
22RWMcBainJack

Defence

1st pair15 min together
98DSergachevMikhail
52DWeegarMacKenzie
2nd pair11 min together
20DPeekeAndrew
88DSchmidtNate
3rd pair6 min together
26DSimashevDmitri
57DDeSimoneNick

Goalies

70ProjectedVejmelkaKarel
33BackupCossaS.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Last game: Oct 20

Forwards

1st line9 min together
29LWHolmbergPontus 28CGirgensonsZemgus 95RWMikheyevIlya
2nd line4 min together
21LWPointBrayden 59CGuentzelJake 93RWGoncalvesGage
3rd line4 min together
38LWHagelBrandon 71CCirelliAnthony 86RWKucherovNikita

Defence

1st pair11 min together
81DCernakErik 27DMcDonaghRyan
2nd pair10 min together
74DCarlsonJohn 90DMoserJ.J.
3rd pair9 min together
77DHedmanVictor 78DLillebergEmil

Goalies

How we read the lines: from the NHL’s shift charts, the three forwards and the two defencemen who shared the most 5-on-5 ice time, ranked by time on ice. Coaches shuffle lines often, so treat them as a guide until puck drop.

Pontus Holmberg: Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0; Zemgus Girgensons: Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 3.0; Ilya Mikheyev: Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0; Brayden Point: 5of7, CC BY-SA 2.0; Jake Guentzel: Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 4.0; Gage Goncalves: TheAHL, CC BY 2.0; Brandon Hagel: Jenn G, CC BY-SA 4.0; Anthony Cirelli: Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 4.0; Nikita Kucherov: Resolute, CC BY-SA 3.0; Erik Cernak: Ailura, CC BY-SA 3.0 at; Ryan McDonagh: Resolute, CC BY-SA 3.0; John Carlson: Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 3.0; J.J. Moser: Quintin Soloviev, CC BY-SA 4.0; Victor Hedman: Lisa Gansky from New York, NY, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0 · Wikimedia Commons

Goalie duel

Projected

Projected from recent starts · confirmed at puck drop

Karel Vejmelka UTA

.872 save percentage

3.04 GAA · 5–3–0 · 1 shutout · 8 starts

Dennis Hildeby TAM

.920 save percentage

2.01 GAA · 2–0–0 · 2 starts

Back-up expected: second night of a back-to-back

Teams do not name their goalie before the game. We expect the No. 1 unless his team played the night before, when the back-up usually starts; last season that call was right about two times in three. Our win chances do not depend on it.

Photo credits: Dennis Hildeby: TheAHL, CC BY 2.0 · Wikimedia Commons

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

Brandon HagelTAM · LW · 7 G in 8 GP · 8 GP7835%2.86
N. SchmaltzUTA · 7 G in 11 GP · 11 GP7530%3.36
Nikita KucherovTAM · RW · 4 G in 9 GP · 9 GP4724%4.15
Jake GuentzelTAM · C · 4 G in 8 GP · 8 GP4523%4.32
C. KellerUTA · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4523%4.43
Anthony CirelliTAM · C · 3 G in 7 GP · 7 GP3421%4.68
L. CooleyUTA · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3521%4.69
John CarlsonTAM · D · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3120%5.11
D. GuentherUTA · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4320%5.13
V. TrocheckUTA · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3319%5.38

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Photo credits: Brandon Hagel: Jenn G, CC BY-SA 4.0; Nikita Kucherov: Resolute, CC BY-SA 3.0; Jake Guentzel: Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 4.0; Anthony Cirelli: Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 4.0; John Carlson: Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 3.0 · Wikimedia Commons

All NHL goal scorer picks today

Who will win Utah Mammoth vs Tampa Bay Lightning?

Utah Mammoth are the pick at 51% on the moneyline, with a projected 3–2 final score against Tampa Bay Lightning.

This is as tight as a matchup gets. Utah Mammoth carry a 51% win probability on home ice, and the model's most likely scoreline is 3–2. Tampa Bay Lightning actually rate slightly better once opponents are accounted for, +0.22 goals per game against an average team versus +0.20 for Utah Mammoth, a gap of just 0.02 goals. Home ice, worth about 0.25 goals a game in this league, is what tips the balance toward the home side.

Form points in different directions. Utah Mammoth have won 3 of their last 5 but have been leaky, scoring 3.8 and allowing 4.2 goals a game over that stretch. Tampa Bay Lightning have won 4 of their last 5 with a far tighter profile, scoring 4.0 and allowing 2.8. The table is level between them too: Utah Mammoth are 4th in the Western Conference and Tampa Bay Lightning are 4th in the Eastern Conference.

Inside regulation the model gives Utah Mammoth 40% to win in 60 minutes and puts a tie after three periods at 22%, which sends the game to overtime and possibly a shootout. The market reads the game the same way: once the bookmaker margin is removed, Utah Mammoth are priced at 50% on the moneyline across 2 bookmakers. With the ratings this close, the home-ice edge is doing most of the work behind the lean.

The case for Tampa Bay Lightning rests on the underlying numbers and recent defensive record, which are marginally better than Utah Mammoth's. The case for Utah Mammoth rests on playing at home in a game the model treats as close to even. Neither side has a clear structural advantage, which is why the win probability sits barely above a coin flip and the lean should be treated with care.

The projected 3–2 scoreline sits below our 6.5 total goals line, and the under is priced at 51% with 6.4 projected. On the puck line, Utah Mammoth −1.5 comes in at 29%, meaning the model expects a one-goal finish far more often than a multi-goal home win. The 3–2 projection is consistent with a tight game decided late, which is why the moneyline lean is modest rather than confident.

Utah Mammoth to win, overtime and shootout included, at 51%, with a projected score of 3–2.