NHL

San Jose Sharks vs Vancouver Canucks prediction

San Jose Sharks6–4–1 · Home Vancouver Canucks2–9–1 · Away10:00 PMOct 29

61%win chance incl. overtime39%

Our pick

61%SAN61%SAN

San Jose Sharks to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.65 · projected 3–2

San Jose Sharks are the pick at home against Vancouver Canucks: a 61% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

SANSan Jose Sharks in 60'

51%

Tied → OTTied → OT

19%

VANVancouver Canucks in 60'

30%

Game flow

SAN 3.5 · VAN 2.8 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.1–0.9

P2 · 1.2–0.8

P3 · 1.2–1.1

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)San Jose Sharks61%1.65
Regulation result (60 minutes)San Jose Sharks51%1.97
Puck lineVancouver Canucks +1.565%1.55
Total goalsOver 6.551%1.97
Both teams to scoreYes92%1.09

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

San Jose Sharks

61%fair 1.65

Regulation result (60 minutes)

San Jose Sharks

51%fair 1.97

Puck line

Vancouver Canucks +1.5

65%fair 1.55

Total goals

Over 6.5

51%fair 1.97

Both teams to score

Yes

92%fair 1.09

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Lines

Lines from the last game · may change

San Jose Sharks

Last game: Oct 22

1st line

8:14 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
2	Will Smith LW	16:54	3	3	6
71	Macklin Celebrini C	23:11	5	9	14
51	Collin Graf RW	19:32	2	1	3

23 points this season

44SherwoodLW

77MisaC

41StenbergRW

2nd line

10:09 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
44	Kiefer Sherwood LW	18:39	1	4	5
77	Michael Misa C	14:21	1	4	5
41	Ivar Stenberg RW	13:58	3	4	7

17 points this season

23GoodrowLW

10DellandreaC

63OstapchukRW

3rd line

6:45 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
23	Barclay Goodrow LW	13:41	0	2	2
10	Ty Dellandrea C	15:26	0	0	0
63	Zack Ostapchuk RW	11:00	1	0	1

3 points this season

4th line: No such unit in that game.

65TroubaD

6DickinsonD

1st pair

15:52 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
65	Jacob Trouba D	23:47	2	4	6
6	Sam Dickinson D	19:47	0	1	1

7 points this season

25NurseD

7KesselringD

2nd pair

14:03 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
25	Darnell Nurse D	21:52	1	1	2
7	Michael Kesselring D	18:12	0	2	2

4 points this season

9OrlovD NA5AllanD

3rd pair

12:48 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
9	Dmitry Orlov D	16:51	1	3	4
5	Nolan Allan D	16:34	2	0	2

6 points this season

Power play unit 1

1:55 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
71	Macklin Celebrini F	23:11	5	9	14
2	Will Smith F	16:54	3	3	6
27	Mason Marchment F	14:15	3	0	3
41	Ivar Stenberg F	13:58	3	4	7
9	Dmitry Orlov D	16:51	1	3	4

34 points this season

Power play unit 2

0:42 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
51	Collin Graf F	19:32	2	1	3
44	Kiefer Sherwood F	18:39	1	4	5
77	Michael Misa F	14:21	1	4	5
73	Tyler Toffoli F	11:06	4	4	8
65	Jacob Trouba D	23:47	2	4	6

27 points this season

Penalty kill unit 1

0:55 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
71	Macklin Celebrini F	23:11	5	9	14
44	Kiefer Sherwood F	18:39	1	4	5
6	Sam Dickinson D	19:47	0	1	1
7	Michael Kesselring D	18:12	0	2	2

22 points this season

Penalty kill unit 2

0:47 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
51	Collin Graf F	19:32	2	1	3
10	Ty Dellandrea F	15:26	0	0	0
65	Jacob Trouba D	23:47	2	4	6
6	Sam Dickinson D	19:47	0	1	1

10 points this season

Goalies: Yaroslav Askarov #30 (Projected) · Alex Nedeljkovic #33 (Backup)

Vancouver Canucks

Last game: Oct 22

32LankinenProjected

JD74DeBruskLW FC77ChytilC JL88LekkerimäkiRW

1st line

9:28 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
74	Jake DeBrusk LW	17:52	3	4	7
77	Filip Chytil C	20:32	0	2	2
88	Jonathan Lekkerimäki RW	17:44	4	5	9

18 points this season

DO18O'ConnorLW

40PetterssonC LK94KarlssonRW

2nd line

11:52 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
18	Drew O'Connor LW	16:49	1	2	3
40	Elias Pettersson C	20:48	4	8	12
94	Linus Karlsson RW	17:13	3	5	8

23 points this season

AB13BainsLW MS63SassonC BG7GallagherRW

3rd line

8:41 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
13	Arshdeep Bains LW	11:18	1	2	3
63	Max Sasson C	13:23	3	1	4
7	Brendan Gallagher RW	10:29	0	2	2

9 points this season

PC47CotterLW MR23RossiC BB6BoeserRW

4th line

4:41 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
47	Paul Cotter LW	11:13	4	3	7
23	Marco Rossi C	9:38	3	2	5
6	Brock Boeser RW	14:09	2	6	8

20 points this season

FH17HronekD

EP25PetterssonD

1st pair

16:08 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
17	Filip Hronek D	24:26	0	7	7
25	Elias Pettersson D	20:10	–	–	–

TW5WillanderD ZB8BuiumD

2nd pair

12:50 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
5	Tom Willander D	21:18	0	3	3
8	Zeev Buium D	20:57	0	3	3

6 points this season

JO4OleksiakD VM90ManciniD

3rd pair

4:55 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
4	Jamie Oleksiak D	15:09	1	3	4
90	Victor Mancini D	11:54	0	0	0

4 points this season

40PetterssonF JD74DeBruskF JL88LekkerimäkiF

BB6BoeserF FH17HronekD

Power play unit 1

3:51 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
40	Elias Pettersson F	20:48	4	8	12
74	Jake DeBrusk F	17:52	3	4	7
88	Jonathan Lekkerimäki F	17:44	4	5	9
6	Brock Boeser F	14:09	2	6	8
17	Filip Hronek D	24:26	0	7	7

43 points this season

FC77ChytilF LK94KarlssonF PC47CotterF

MR23RossiF ZB8BuiumD

Power play unit 2

1:31 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
77	Filip Chytil F	20:32	0	2	2
94	Linus Karlsson F	17:13	3	5	8
47	Paul Cotter F	11:13	4	3	7
23	Marco Rossi F	9:38	3	2	5
8	Zeev Buium D	20:57	0	3	3

25 points this season

FC77ChytilF MS63SassonF

JO4OleksiakD VM90ManciniD

Penalty kill unit 1

1:06 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
77	Filip Chytil F	20:32	0	2	2
63	Max Sasson F	13:23	3	1	4
4	Jamie Oleksiak D	15:09	1	3	4
90	Victor Mancini D	11:54	0	0	0

10 points this season

40PetterssonF BB6BoeserF

FH17HronekD

EP25PetterssonD

Penalty kill unit 2

0:30 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
40	Elias Pettersson F	20:48	4	8	12
6	Brock Boeser F	14:09	2	6	8
17	Filip Hronek D	24:26	0	7	7
25	Elias Pettersson D	20:10	–	–	–

Goalies: Kevin Lankinen #32 (Projected) · Leevi Meriläinen #31 (Backup)

Swipe the rink to switch units

How we read the lines

From the NHL’s shift charts, the three forwards and the two defencemen who shared the most 5-on-5 ice time, ranked by time on ice. Coaches shuffle lines often, so treat them as a guide until puck drop. Power-play and penalty-kill units: the five (on the power play) or four (on the penalty kill) skaters who were on the ice together the longest in that situation. TOI: ice time in that game. G, A, P: goals, assists and points this season.

Photo credits (21)

Will Smith · Jesse Kornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0
Macklin Celebrini · Jesse Kornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0
Collin Graf · Jessekornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0
Kiefer Sherwood · Jesse Kornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0
Michael Misa · Jesse Kornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0
Ivar Stenberg · Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
Barclay Goodrow · Jessekornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0
Ty Dellandrea · Jessekornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0
Zack Ostapchuk · Jesse Kornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0
Jacob Trouba · Stefan Brending ( 2eight ), CC BY-SA 3.0 de
Sam Dickinson · Jesse Kornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0
Darnell Nurse · All-Pro Reels, CC BY-SA 2.0
Michael Kesselring · Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
Dmitry Orlov · Jesse Kornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0
Mason Marchment · Jessekornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0
Tyler Toffoli · Jessekornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0
Yaroslav Askarov · Jessekornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0
Alex Nedeljkovic · Jesse Kornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0
Elias Pettersson · Matt.davs, CC BY-SA 4.0
Kevin Lankinen · HickoryOughtShirt?4, CC BY-SA 4.0
Leevi Meriläinen · Hockeywithry, CC BY 4.0

Goalie duel

Projected

Projected from recent starts · confirmed at puck drop

Yaroslav Askarov SAN

.883 save percentage

3.43 GAA · 3–4–0 · 7 starts

Kevin Lankinen VAN

.812 save percentage

6.17 GAA · 1–7–0 · 7 starts

Teams do not name their goalie before the game. We expect the No. 1 unless his team played the night before, when the back-up usually starts; last season that call was right about two times in three. Our win chances do not depend on it.

Photo credits (2)

Yaroslav Askarov · Jessekornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0
Kevin Lankinen · HickoryOughtShirt?4, CC BY-SA 4.0

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

Macklin CelebriniSAN · C · 5 G in 11 GP · 11 GP5632%3.17
Tyler ToffoliSAN · C · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4428%3.61
Ivar StenbergSAN · LW · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3324%4.17
Jonathan LekkerimäkiVAN · RW · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4422%4.61
Mason MarchmentSAN · LW · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3221%4.68
Elias PetterssonVAN · C · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4421%4.71
Will SmithSAN · C · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3220%5.06
Linus KarlssonVAN · C · 3 G in 12 GP · 12 GP3319%5.31
Paul CotterVAN · LW · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4118%5.45
Max SassonVAN · C · 3 G in 12 GP · 12 GP3218%5.65

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Photo credits (6)

Macklin Celebrini · Jesse Kornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0
Tyler Toffoli · Jessekornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0
Ivar Stenberg · Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
Mason Marchment · Jessekornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0
Elias Pettersson · Matt.davs, CC BY-SA 4.0
Will Smith · Jesse Kornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0

All NHL goal scorer picks today

Who will win San Jose Sharks vs Vancouver Canucks?

San Jose Sharks are the pick at home against Vancouver Canucks: a 61% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

San Jose Sharks have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.4 and allowing 2.8 goals a game over that stretch. Vancouver Canucks have won 0 of their last 5, scoring 2.2 and allowing 4.2 goals a game over that stretch.

San Jose Sharks sit 8th in the Western Conference, while Vancouver Canucks sit 16th in the Western Conference.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, San Jose Sharks rate −0.12 and Vancouver Canucks −0.57 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.45 goals to San Jose Sharks. Home ice is worth about 0.25 goals a game in this league.

About 19% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why San Jose Sharks win it in regulation only 51% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 61%.

Our own lines for this game: San Jose Sharks −1.5 on the puck line (35%) and 6.5 total goals, with the over at 51% (6.6 projected).

San Jose Sharks to win, overtime and shootout included (61%). Projected score: 3–2.