NHL

Nashville Predators vs Washington Capitals prediction

Nashville Predators3–3–3 · Home Washington Capitals5–4–0 · Away08:00 PMOct 29

50%win chance incl. overtime50%

Our pick

50%NAS50%NAS

Nashville Predators to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.99 · projected 3–2

Nashville Predators are the pick at home against Washington Capitals: a 50% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

NASNashville Predators in 60'

40%

Tied → OTTied → OT

20%

WASWashington Capitals in 60'

40%

Game flow

NAS 3.0 · WAS 3.0 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.1–1.1

P2 · 0.8–1.1

P3 · 1.0–0.7

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Nashville Predators50%1.99
Regulation result (60 minutes)Nashville Predators40%2.50
Puck lineWashington Capitals +1.575%1.34
Total goalsUnder 6.555%1.82
Both teams to scoreYes91%1.10

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Nashville Predators

50%fair 1.99

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Nashville Predators

40%fair 2.50

Puck line

Washington Capitals +1.5

75%fair 1.34

Total goals

Under 6.5

55%fair 1.82

Both teams to score

Yes

91%fair 1.10

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Lines

Lines from the last game · may change

Nashville Predators

Last game: Oct 22

74SarosProjected

FF9ForsbergLW RO90O'ReillyC SS91StamkosRW

1st line

9:10 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
9	Filip Forsberg LW	17:30	1	7	8
90	Ryan O'Reilly C	16:35	4	3	7
91	Steven Stamkos RW	14:04	4	5	9

24 points this season

MB22BourqueLW AK14KerfootC JM81MarchessaultRW

2nd line

9:37 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
22	Mavrik Bourque LW	14:36	0	1	1
14	Alexander Kerfoot C	16:59	1	2	3
81	Jonathan Marchessault RW	16:10	1	1	2

6 points this season

RS49SchaeferLW JD18DruryC AE84EdströmRW

3rd line

6:49 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
49	Reid Schaefer LW	11:36	0	0	0
18	Jack Drury C	17:27	1	1	2
84	Adam Edström RW	16:58	4	0	4

6 points this season

NH21HöglanderLW RC79ColtonC MW71WoodRW

4th line

2:35 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
21	Nils Höglander LW	12:12	3	0	3
79	Ross Colton C	11:19	1	1	2
71	Matthew Wood RW	11:24	1	1	2

7 points this season

RJ59JosiD AW2WilsbyD

1st pair

19:24 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
59	Roman Josi D	24:29	1	8	9
2	Adam Wilsby D	22:09	0	4	4

13 points this season

NH41HagueD JS3StrubleD

2nd pair

17:17 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
41	Nicolas Hague D	20:13	0	1	1
3	Jayden Struble D	18:07	0	0	0

1 points this season

BS76SkjeiD IL46LyubushkinD

3rd pair

13:59 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
76	Brady Skjei D	17:46	0	2	2
46	Ilya Lyubushkin D	16:11	0	0	0

2 points this season

FF9ForsbergF RO90O'ReillyF JM81MarchessaultF

SS91StamkosF RJ59JosiD

Power play unit 1

0:59 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
9	Filip Forsberg F	17:30	1	7	8
90	Ryan O'Reilly F	16:35	4	3	7
81	Jonathan Marchessault F	16:10	1	1	2
91	Steven Stamkos F	14:04	4	5	9
59	Roman Josi D	24:29	1	8	9

35 points this season

Power play unit 2: No such unit in that game.

JD18DruryF AK14KerfootF

AW2WilsbyD BS76SkjeiD

Penalty kill unit 1

1:24 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
18	Jack Drury F	17:27	1	1	2
14	Alexander Kerfoot F	16:59	1	2	3
2	Adam Wilsby D	22:09	0	4	4
76	Brady Skjei D	17:46	0	2	2

11 points this season

AE84EdströmF RO90O'ReillyF

RJ59JosiD IL46LyubushkinD

Penalty kill unit 2

1:10 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
84	Adam Edström F	16:58	4	0	4
90	Ryan O'Reilly F	16:35	4	3	7
59	Roman Josi D	24:29	1	8	9
46	Ilya Lyubushkin D	16:11	0	0	0

20 points this season

Goalies: Juuse Saros #74 (Projected) · Justus Annunen #29 (Backup)

Washington Capitals

Last game: Oct 20

79LindgrenProjected

JK25KyrouLW DS17StromeC AT89TuchRW

1st line

9:53 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
25	Jordan Kyrou LW	14:50	2	4	6
17	Dylan Strome C	18:59	1	5	6
89	Alex Tuch RW	18:59	5	2	7

19 points this season

AP21ProtasLW BJ22JennerC TW43WilsonRW

2nd line

8:25 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
21	Aliaksei Protas LW	13:09	0	2	2
22	Boone Jenner C	17:51	4	1	5
43	Tom Wilson RW	17:40	2	3	5

12 points this season

AB72BeauvillierLW JB76BrodzinskiC RL9LeonardRW

3rd line

7:51 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
72	Anthony Beauvillier LW	12:59	1	1	2
76	Jonny Brodzinski C	10:12	0	1	1
9	Ryan Leonard RW	17:31	4	4	8

11 points this season

AO8OvechkinLW IP62ProtasC IM63MiroshnichenkoRW

4th line

8:12 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
8	Alex Ovechkin LW	16:21	1	3	4
62	Ilya Protas C	13:28	1	4	5
63	Ivan Miroshnichenko RW	10:34	1	0	1

10 points this season

JC6ChychrunD

3RoyD

1st pair

14:22 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
6	Jakob Chychrun D	26:38	1	4	5
3	Matt Roy D	17:30	0	0	0

5 points this season

MF42FehérváryD VD73DesharnaisD

2nd pair

11:19 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
42	Martin Fehérváry D	19:39	0	1	1
73	Vincent Desharnais D	15:33	0	3	3

4 points this season

CH44HutsonD TL27LiljegrenD

3rd pair

9:24 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
44	Cole Hutson D	21:44	2	3	5
27	Timothy Liljegren D	12:44	1	0	1

6 points this season

DS17StromeF TW43WilsonF RL9LeonardF

AO8OvechkinF JC6ChychrunD

Power play unit 1

2:02 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
17	Dylan Strome F	18:59	1	5	6
43	Tom Wilson F	17:40	2	3	5
9	Ryan Leonard F	17:31	4	4	8
8	Alex Ovechkin F	16:21	1	3	4
6	Jakob Chychrun D	26:38	1	4	5

28 points this season

AT89TuchF AO8OvechkinF JK25KyrouF

IP62ProtasF CH44HutsonD

Power play unit 2

0:49 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
89	Alex Tuch F	18:59	5	2	7
8	Alex Ovechkin F	16:21	1	3	4
25	Jordan Kyrou F	14:50	2	4	6
62	Ilya Protas F	13:28	1	4	5
44	Cole Hutson D	21:44	2	3	5

27 points this season

AT89TuchF TW43WilsonF

MF42FehérváryD

3RoyD

Penalty kill unit 1

0:55 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
89	Alex Tuch F	18:59	5	2	7
43	Tom Wilson F	17:40	2	3	5
42	Martin Fehérváry D	19:39	0	1	1
3	Matt Roy D	17:30	0	0	0

13 points this season

BJ22JennerF TW43WilsonF

JC6ChychrunD TL27LiljegrenD

Penalty kill unit 2

0:30 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
22	Boone Jenner F	17:51	4	1	5
43	Tom Wilson F	17:40	2	3	5
6	Jakob Chychrun D	26:38	1	4	5
27	Timothy Liljegren D	12:44	1	0	1

16 points this season

Goalies: Charlie Lindgren #79 (Projected) · Logan Thompson #48 (Backup)

Swipe the rink to switch units

How we read the lines

From the NHL’s shift charts, the three forwards and the two defencemen who shared the most 5-on-5 ice time, ranked by time on ice. Coaches shuffle lines often, so treat them as a guide until puck drop. Power-play and penalty-kill units: the five (on the power play) or four (on the penalty kill) skaters who were on the ice together the longest in that situation. TOI: ice time in that game. G, A, P: goals, assists and points this season.

Photo credits (4)

Justus Annunen · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Juuse Saros · Coordinator50, CC BY 4.0
Matt Roy · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Charlie Lindgren · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0

Goalie duel

Projected

Projected from recent starts · confirmed at puck drop

Juuse Saros NAS

.906 save percentage

2.82 GAA · 3–2–2 · 7 starts

Charlie Lindgren WAS

.897 save percentage

3.06 GAA · 1–1–0 · 2 starts

Back-up expected: second night of a back-to-back

Teams do not name their goalie before the game. We expect the No. 1 unless his team played the night before, when the back-up usually starts; last season that call was right about two times in three. Our win chances do not depend on it.

Photo credits (2)

Juuse Saros · Coordinator50, CC BY 4.0
Charlie Lindgren · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

Adam EdströmNAS · C · 4 G in 6 GP · 6 GP4230%3.37
Ryan O'ReillyNAS · C · 4 G in 8 GP · 8 GP4428%3.61
Alex TuchWAS · RW · 5 G in 9 GP · 9 GP5427%3.77
Boone JennerWAS · C · 4 G in 8 GP · 8 GP4326%3.90
Steven StamkosNAS · C · 4 G in 9 GP · 9 GP4425%3.94
Ryan LeonardWAS · RW · 4 G in 9 GP · 9 GP4524%4.18
Nils HöglanderNAS · LW · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3021%4.83
Jordan KyrouWAS · RW · 2 G in 7 GP · 7 GP2517%5.90
Cole HutsonWAS · D · 2 G in 9 GP · 9 GP2315%6.50
Alexander KerfootNAS · C · 1 G in 6 GP · 6 GP1113%7.50

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

All NHL goal scorer picks today

Who will win Nashville Predators vs Washington Capitals?

Nashville Predators are the pick at home against Washington Capitals: a 50% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

Nashville Predators have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 2.2 and allowing 3.8 goals a game over that stretch. Washington Capitals have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 3.2 and allowing 4.0 goals a game over that stretch.

Nashville Predators sit 11th in the Western Conference, while Washington Capitals sit 12th in the Eastern Conference.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Nashville Predators rate −0.15 and Washington Capitals +0.09 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.24 goals to Washington Capitals. Home ice is worth about 0.25 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives Nashville Predators 40% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 20%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

Our own lines for this game: Nashville Predators −1.5 on the puck line (25%) and 6.5 total goals, with the under at 55% (6.2 projected).

Nashville Predators to win, overtime and shootout included (50%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.