Los Angeles Kings vs Ottawa Senators prediction
Our pick
Los Angeles Kings to win
incl. overtime · fair odds 1.90 · projected 3–2
Los Angeles Kings are the pick at home against Ottawa Senators: a 53% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.
After 60 minutes
Game flow
LOS 3.0 · OTT 2.8 expected goals in 60 minutes
Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).
Markets
- Moneyline (incl. overtime)Los Angeles Kings53%1.90
- Regulation result (60 minutes)Los Angeles Kings42%2.37
- Puck lineOttawa Senators +1.573%1.37
- Total goalsOver 5.551%1.95
- Both teams to scoreYes89%1.12
Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.
Lines
Lines from the last game · may change
Los Angeles Kings
Last game: Oct 22
Forwards
- 1st line14 min together
- 2nd line10 min together
- 3rd line9 min together
- 4th line7 min together
Defence
- 1st pair10 min together
- 2nd pair15 min together
- 3rd pair8 min together
Ottawa Senators
Last game: Oct 22
Forwards
- 1st line7 min together
- 2nd line10 min together
- 3rd line8 min together
- 4th line1 min together
Defence
- 1st pair11 min together
- 2nd pair7 min together
- 3rd pair12 min together
How we read the lines: from the NHL’s shift charts, the three forwards and the two defencemen who shared the most 5-on-5 ice time, ranked by time on ice. Coaches shuffle lines often, so treat them as a guide until puck drop.
Artemi Panarin: Tlop2000, CC BY-SA 4.0; Adrian Kempe: Ryan Tanner, CC0; Alex Laferriere: Kenneth C. Zirkel, CC BY 4.0; Erik Haula: Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 4.0; Mats Zuccarello: Lillehammer 2016 Youth Olympic Games from Norway, CC BY 2.0; Trevor Moore: TheAHL, CC BY 2.0; Scott Laughton: Jessica, CC BY-SA 2.0; Joel Armia: mark6mauno, CC BY-SA 2.0; Samuel Helenius: Kaiser matias, CC BY-SA 4.0; Corey Perry: mark6mauno, CC BY-SA 2.0; Erik Gustafsson: Albin Olsson, CC BY-SA 3.0; Brandt Clarke: TheAHL, CC BY-SA 4.0; Mikey Anderson: All-Pro Reels, CC BY-SA 2.0; Brian Dumoulin: Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 3.0; Drew Doughty: mark6mauno, CC BY-SA 2.0; Joel Edmundson: Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 4.0; Tim Stützle: BKLuis, CC BY-SA 4.0; Claude Giroux: Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0; Ridly Greig: Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0; Shane Pinto: Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0; Michael Amadio: Pens Through My Lens, CC BY-SA 4.0; Warren Foegele: TheAHL, CC BY 2.0; Dylan Cozens: CloutsnChara Sports Cards, CC BY 3.0; Drake Batherson: TheAHL, CC BY 2.0; Nick Cousins: TheAHL, CC BY 2.0; Hayden Hodgson: m_kania, CC BY 2.0; Jake Sanderson: Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0; Artem Zub: All-Pro Reels, CC BY-SA 2.0; Carter Yakemchuk: Hockeywithry, CC0; Jordan Spence: Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0; Tyler Kleven: Hockeywithry, CC BY 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons
Goalie duel
Projected
Goalie duelProjected from recent starts · confirmed at puck drop
Teams do not name their goalie before the game. We expect the No. 1 unless his team played the night before, when the back-up usually starts; last season that call was right about two times in three. Our win chances do not depend on it.
Photo credits: Darcy Kuemper: Pens Through My Lens, CC BY-SA 4.0; Linus Ullmark: Calle Eklund/ V-wolf, CC BY-SA 3.0 · Wikimedia Commons
Who scores
Anytime goal, overtime included
Artemi PanarinLOS · LW · 6 G in 8 GP · 8 GP6637%2.73
Tim StützleOTT · C · 7 G in 11 GP · 11 GP7532%3.08
Adrian KempeLOS · RW · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3523%4.27
Drake BathersonOTT · RW · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4422%4.49
Brandt ClarkeLOS · D · 2 G in 8 GP · 8 GP2519%5.31- Stephen HallidayOTT · C · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3318%5.43
Alex LaferriereLOS · RW · 2 G in 8 GP · 8 GP2418%5.60
Scott LaughtonLOS · C · 1 G in 5 GP · 5 GP1216%6.43
Claude GirouxOTT · RW · 2 G in 11 GP · 11 GP2315%6.47
Shane PintoOTT · C · 2 G in 11 GP · 11 GP2215%6.55
The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.
Photo credits (9)
Artemi Panarin: Tlop2000, CC BY-SA 4.0; Tim Stützle: BKLuis, CC BY-SA 4.0; Adrian Kempe: Ryan Tanner, CC0; Drake Batherson: TheAHL, CC BY 2.0; Brandt Clarke: TheAHL, CC BY-SA 4.0; Alex Laferriere: Kenneth C. Zirkel, CC BY 4.0; Scott Laughton: Jessica, CC BY-SA 2.0; Claude Giroux: Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0; Shane Pinto: Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0 · Wikimedia Commons
Who will win Los Angeles Kings vs Ottawa Senators?
Los Angeles Kings are the pick at home against Ottawa Senators: a 53% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.
Los Angeles Kings have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.2 and allowing 2.8 goals a game over that stretch. Ottawa Senators have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.4 and allowing 3.6 goals a game over that stretch.
Los Angeles Kings sit 13th in the Western Conference, while Ottawa Senators sit 5th in the Eastern Conference.
Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Los Angeles Kings rate −0.18 and Ottawa Senators −0.10 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.08 goals to Ottawa Senators. Home ice is worth about 0.25 goals a game in this league.
In regulation the model gives Los Angeles Kings 42% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 21%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.
Our own lines for this game: Los Angeles Kings −1.5 on the puck line (27%) and 5.5 total goals, with the over at 51% (6 projected).
Los Angeles Kings to win, overtime and shootout included (53%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.
Team leaders
- Points
- Goals
- Assists
- Penalty minutes
Season totals in this competition from the scoresheets so far (8 games per team); current squads only.
Photo credits: Artemi Panarin: Tlop2000, CC BY-SA 4.0; Brandt Clarke: TheAHL, CC BY-SA 4.0; Tim Stützle: BKLuis, CC BY-SA 4.0; Ridly Greig: Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0 · Wikimedia Commons
Recent form
W win · OTL loss in overtime or a shootout · L loss in regulation
Head to head
No recent meetings on record.
Also scheduled
Other games that day
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- · KHLCherepovets – Spartak Moscow53%
- · MestisIPK – KeuPa66%
- · MestisKettera – Pyry58%
- · MestisTUTO – K-Vantaa62%
- · SHLRögle – Malmo55%
- · SHLTimrå – Vaxjo54%
- · SHLSkellefteå – Linkoping70%
- · DELAugsburger Panther – Frankfurt Lowen53%
- · National LeagueLugano – Lausanne54%
- · AHLHamilton Hammers – Hartford Wolf Pack52%
