NHL

Detroit Red Wings vs Chicago Blackhawks prediction

Detroit Red Wings4–3–3 · Home Chicago Blackhawks3–7–0 · Away07:30 PMOct 29

62%win chance incl. overtime38%

Our pick

62%DET62%DET

Detroit Red Wings to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.61 · projected 3–2

Detroit Red Wings are the pick at home against Chicago Blackhawks: a 62% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

DETDetroit Red Wings in 60'

52%

Tied → OTTied → OT

20%

CHIChicago Blackhawks in 60'

28%

Game flow

DET 3.3 · CHI 2.5 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.9–0.9

P2 · 1.2–0.9

P3 · 1.2–0.6

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Detroit Red Wings62%1.61
Regulation result (60 minutes)Detroit Red Wings52%1.93
Puck lineChicago Blackhawks +1.564%1.55
Total goalsOver 5.552%1.94
Both teams to scoreYes89%1.13

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Detroit Red Wings

62%fair 1.61

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Detroit Red Wings

52%fair 1.93

Puck line

Chicago Blackhawks +1.5

64%fair 1.55

Total goals

Over 5.5

52%fair 1.94

Both teams to score

Yes

89%fair 1.13

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Lines

Lines from the last game · may change

Detroit Red Wings

Last game: Oct 22

36GibsonProjected

LR23RaymondLW DL71LarkinC MB28Brandsegg-NygårdRW

1st line

13:42 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
23	Lucas Raymond LW	17:42	3	5	8
71	Dylan Larkin C	20:09	1	4	5
28	Michael Brandsegg-Nygård RW	16:25	2	6	8

21 points this season

VA33ArvidssonLW EF58FinnieC AD93DeBrincatRW

2nd line

9:51 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
33	Viktor Arvidsson LW	13:59	4	3	7
58	Emmitt Finnie C	15:00	4	3	7
93	Alex DeBrincat RW	15:15	6	5	11

25 points this season

JC37CompherLW AC18CoppC MR27RasmussenRW

3rd line

9:31 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
37	J.T. Compher LW	13:20	0	1	1
18	Andrew Copp C	15:30	1	1	2
27	Michael Rasmussen RW	14:34	1	2	3

6 points this season

CM34MazurLW ND29DanielsonC KK55KolesarRW

4th line

7:36 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	A	P
34	Carter Mazur LW	10:49	1	1
29	Nate Danielson C	10:15	2	2
55	Keegan Kolesar RW	13:09	0	0

3 points this season

MS53SeiderD BC8ChiarotD

1st pair

15:20 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
53	Moritz Seider D	23:23	0	5	5
8	Ben Chiarot D	22:30	0	1	1

6 points this season

AJ20JohanssonD

AJ42JohanssonD

2nd pair

12:30 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
20	Albert Johansson D	19:44	1	4	5
42	Anton Johansson D	17:48	–	–	–

JF72FaulkD WW54WallinderD

3rd pair

11:42 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
72	Justin Faulk D	20:21	2	2	4
54	William Wallinder D	13:34	2	1	3

7 points this season

DL71LarkinF LR23RaymondF AD93DeBrincatF

VA33ArvidssonF MS53SeiderD

Power play unit 1

1:41 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
71	Dylan Larkin F	20:09	1	4	5
23	Lucas Raymond F	17:42	3	5	8
93	Alex DeBrincat F	15:15	6	5	11
33	Viktor Arvidsson F	13:59	4	3	7
53	Moritz Seider D	23:23	0	5	5

36 points this season

MB28Brandsegg-NygårdF AC18CoppF EF58FinnieF

MR27RasmussenF JF72FaulkD

Power play unit 2

0:44 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
28	Michael Brandsegg-Nygård F	16:25	2	6	8
18	Andrew Copp F	15:30	1	1	2
58	Emmitt Finnie F	15:00	4	3	7
27	Michael Rasmussen F	14:34	1	2	3
72	Justin Faulk D	20:21	2	2	4

24 points this season

DL71LarkinF EF58FinnieF

MS53SeiderD BC8ChiarotD

Penalty kill unit 1

1:16 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
71	Dylan Larkin F	20:09	1	4	5
58	Emmitt Finnie F	15:00	4	3	7
53	Moritz Seider D	23:23	0	5	5
8	Ben Chiarot D	22:30	0	1	1

18 points this season

MR27RasmussenF KK55KolesarF

MS53SeiderD AJ20JohanssonD

Penalty kill unit 2

0:59 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
27	Michael Rasmussen F	14:34	1	2	3
55	Keegan Kolesar F	13:09	0	0	0
53	Moritz Seider D	23:23	0	5	5
20	Albert Johansson D	19:44	1	4	5

13 points this season

Goalies: John Gibson #36 (Projected) · Michal Postava #35 (Backup)

Chicago Blackhawks

Last game: Oct 23

1st line

7:30 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
80	Roman Kantserov LW	16:52	3	0	3
98	Connor Bedard C	16:28	2	2	4
88	Patrick Kane RW	17:17	1	5	6

13 points this season

59BertuzziLW AF16FrondellC

86TeräväinenRW

2nd line

3:49 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
59	Tyler Bertuzzi LW	14:35	2	3	5
16	Anton Frondell C	12:56	1	5	6
86	Teuvo Teräväinen RW	12:44	2	3	5

16 points this season

8DonatoLW

91NazarC

11MooreRW

3rd line

6:48 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
8	Ryan Donato LW	12:07	2	1	3
91	Frank Nazar C	15:54	3	1	4
11	Oliver Moore RW	10:27	2	1	3

10 points this season

12GreenwayLW RG20GreeneC CS22SmithRW

4th line

7:15 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
12	Jordan Greenway LW	11:06	1	0	1
20	Ryan Greene C	9:49	0	2	2
22	Cole Smith RW	10:18	1	1	2

5 points this season

72VlasicD

28ColeD

1st pair

10:52 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
72	Alex Vlasic D	17:59	0	2	2
28	Ian Cole D	17:03	0	0	0

2 points this season

44KaiserD

55LevshunovD

2nd pair

10:59 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
44	Wyatt Kaiser D	15:13	0	3	3
55	Artyom Levshunov D	14:57	1	2	3

6 points this season

6RinzelD

38MastroD

3rd pair

7:17 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
6	Sam Rinzel D	14:24	1	1	2
38	Ethan Del Mastro D	9:09	0	0	0

2 points this season

88KaneF RK80KantserovF

98BedardF

59BertuzziF

86TeräväinenF

Power play unit 1

4:40 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
88	Patrick Kane F	17:17	1	5	6
80	Roman Kantserov F	16:52	3	0	3
98	Connor Bedard F	16:28	2	2	4
59	Tyler Bertuzzi F	14:35	2	3	5
86	Teuvo Teräväinen F	12:44	2	3	5

23 points this season

91NazarF AF16FrondellF

8DonatoF

11MooreF

6RinzelD

Power play unit 2

2:30 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
91	Frank Nazar F	15:54	3	1	4
16	Anton Frondell F	12:56	1	5	6
8	Ryan Donato F	12:07	2	1	3
11	Oliver Moore F	10:27	2	1	3
6	Sam Rinzel D	14:24	1	1	2

18 points this season

Penalty kill unit 1

0:57 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
91	Frank Nazar F	15:54	3	1	4
12	Jordan Greenway F	11:06	1	0	1
72	Alex Vlasic D	17:59	0	2	2
28	Ian Cole D	17:03	0	0	0

7 points this season

Penalty kill unit 2: No such unit in that game.

Goalies: Spencer Knight #30 (Projected) · Arvid Söderblom #40 (Backup)

Swipe the rink to switch units

How we read the lines

From the NHL’s shift charts, the three forwards and the two defencemen who shared the most 5-on-5 ice time, ranked by time on ice. Coaches shuffle lines often, so treat them as a guide until puck drop. Power-play and penalty-kill units: the five (on the power play) or four (on the penalty kill) skaters who were on the ice together the longest in that situation. TOI: ice time in that game. G, A, P: goals, assists and points this season.

Photo credits (17)

John Gibson · mark6mauno, CC BY-SA 2.0
Connor Bedard · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Patrick Kane · Lisa Gansky from New York, NY, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Tyler Bertuzzi · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Teuvo Teräväinen · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Ryan Donato · Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0
Frank Nazar · Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
Oliver Moore · Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
Jordan Greenway · Surveytrevor, CC BY-SA 4.0
Alex Vlasic · Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
Ian Cole · Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 4.0
Wyatt Kaiser · Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
Artyom Levshunov · Trevor Cokley (U.S. Air Force Academy), Public domain
Sam Rinzel · SecretName101, CC BY 4.0
Ethan Del Mastro · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Spencer Knight · Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0
Arvid Söderblom · Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0

Goalie duel

Projected

Projected from recent starts · confirmed at puck drop

John Gibson DET

.871 save percentage

3.35 GAA · 3–3–1 · 7 starts

Spencer Knight CHI

.888 save percentage

3.52 GAA · 3–5–0 · 8 starts

Teams do not name their goalie before the game. We expect the No. 1 unless his team played the night before, when the back-up usually starts; last season that call was right about two times in three. Our win chances do not depend on it.

Photo credits (2)

John Gibson · mark6mauno, CC BY-SA 2.0
Spencer Knight · Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

Alex DeBrincatDET · RW · 6 G in 9 GP · 9 GP6634%2.92
Emmitt FinnieDET · C · 4 G in 9 GP · 9 GP4627%3.73
Viktor ArvidssonDET · LW · 4 G in 9 GP · 9 GP4325%3.97
Lucas RaymondDET · LW · 3 G in 9 GP · 9 GP3524%4.12
Roman KantserovCHI · RW · 3 G in 7 GP · 7 GP3321%4.77
Frank NazarCHI · C · 3 G in 9 GP · 9 GP3119%5.14
William WallinderDET · D · 2 G in 8 GP · 8 GP2118%5.52
Teuvo TeräväinenCHI · C · 2 G in 8 GP · 8 GP2316%6.36
Ryan DonatoCHI · C · 2 G in 9 GP · 9 GP2215%6.59
Tyler BertuzziCHI · LW · 2 G in 8 GP · 8 GP2315%6.69

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Photo credits (4)

Frank Nazar · Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
Teuvo Teräväinen · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Ryan Donato · Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0
Tyler Bertuzzi · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0

All NHL goal scorer picks today

Who will win Detroit Red Wings vs Chicago Blackhawks?

Detroit Red Wings are the pick at home against Chicago Blackhawks: a 62% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

Detroit Red Wings have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.6 and allowing 3.0 goals a game over that stretch. Chicago Blackhawks have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.4 and allowing 3.8 goals a game over that stretch.

Detroit Red Wings sit 11th in the Eastern Conference, while Chicago Blackhawks sit 15th in the Western Conference.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Detroit Red Wings rate −0.04 and Chicago Blackhawks −0.56 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.52 goals to Detroit Red Wings. Home ice is worth about 0.25 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives Detroit Red Wings 52% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 20%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

Our own lines for this game: Detroit Red Wings −1.5 on the puck line (36%) and 5.5 total goals, with the over at 52% (6 projected).

Detroit Red Wings to win, overtime and shootout included (62%). Projected score: 3–2.