Anaheim Ducks vs Buffalo Sabres prediction
Our pick
Anaheim Ducks to win
incl. overtime · fair odds 1.82 · projected 3–2
Our model makes Anaheim Ducks 55% favourites at home against Buffalo Sabres, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.
After 60 minutes
Game flow
ANA 3.2 · BUF 2.9 expected goals in 60 minutes
Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).
Markets
- Moneyline (incl. overtime)Anaheim Ducks55%1.82
- Regulation result (60 minutes)Anaheim Ducks45%2.23
- Puck lineBuffalo Sabres +1.570%1.42
- Total goalsUnder 6.553%1.89
- Both teams to scoreYes91%1.10
Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.
Lines
Lines from the last game · may change
Anaheim Ducks
Last game: Oct 24
1st line
6:11 together at 5-on-5
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | Cutter Gauthier LW | 16:01 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 91 | Leo Carlsson C | 17:34 | 3 | 8 | 11 |
| 28 | Judd Caulfield RW | 10:00 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
21 points this season
2nd line
5:48 together at 5-on-5
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | Jeff Malott LW | 7:26 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 64 | Mikael Granlund C | 17:37 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 45 | Beckett Sennecke RW | 14:51 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
20 points this season
3rd line
4:17 together at 5-on-5
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | A.J. Greer LW | 7:41 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 42 | Tim Washe C | 11:58 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 12 | Sam Colangelo RW | 7:42 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
12 points this season
4th line
3:33 together at 5-on-5
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Alex Killorn LW | 11:43 | 1 | 4 | 5 |
| 13 | Nikita Nesterenko C | 9:44 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 95 | Roger McQueen RW | 5:14 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
8 points this season
1st pair
10:25 together at 5-on-5
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Jackson LaCombe D | 19:37 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 47 | Noah Warren D | 13:52 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
10 points this season
2nd pair
6:37 together at 5-on-5
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | Travis Mitchell D | 16:21 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 67 | Tristan Luneau D | 13:55 | 1 | 4 | 5 |
6 points this season
3rd pair
4:01 together at 5-on-5
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Drew Helleson D | 14:32 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 55 | Tyson Hinds D | 10:50 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
0 points this season
Power play unit 1
2:44 together on the power play
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | Mikael Granlund F | 17:37 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 91 | Leo Carlsson F | 17:34 | 3 | 8 | 11 |
| 61 | Cutter Gauthier F | 16:01 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 45 | Beckett Sennecke F | 14:51 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| 2 | Jackson LaCombe D | 19:37 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
41 points this season
Power play unit 2
0:48 together on the power play
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Alex Killorn F | 11:43 | 1 | 4 | 5 |
| 28 | Judd Caulfield F | 10:00 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 13 | Nikita Nesterenko F | 9:44 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Sam Colangelo F | 7:42 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 67 | Tristan Luneau D | 13:55 | 1 | 4 | 5 |
19 points this season
Penalty kill unit 1
1:49 together on the penalty kill
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | Mikael Granlund F | 17:37 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 17 | Alex Killorn F | 11:43 | 1 | 4 | 5 |
| 34 | Travis Mitchell D | 16:21 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 14 | Drew Helleson D | 14:32 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
14 points this season
Penalty kill unit 2
0:49 together on the penalty kill
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | Tim Washe F | 11:58 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 13 | Nikita Nesterenko F | 9:44 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 14 | Drew Helleson D | 14:32 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 55 | Tyson Hinds D | 10:50 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
9 points this season
Goalies: Lukas Dostal #1 (Projected) · Ville Husso #33 (Backup)
Buffalo Sabres
Last game: Oct 21
1st line
8:40 together at 5-on-5
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Zach Benson LW | 21:21 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
| 86 | Noah Ostlund C | 21:40 | 2 | 5 | 7 |
| 22 | Jack Quinn RW | 20:45 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
21 points this season
2nd line
8:44 together at 5-on-5
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Jiří Kulich LW | 13:42 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 72 | Tage Thompson C | 20:06 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
| 91 | Josh Doan RW | 13:32 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
14 points this season
3rd line
4:38 together at 5-on-5
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Jason Zucker LW | 12:16 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Josh Norris C | 13:43 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 94 | Konsta Helenius RW | 9:07 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
6 points this season
4th line
5:00 together at 5-on-5
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Beck Malenstyn LW | 10:07 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| 71 | Ryan McLeod C | 13:06 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 19 | Peyton Krebs RW | 8:49 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
8 points this season
1st pair
14:44 together at 5-on-5
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Rasmus Dahlin D | 26:27 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 23 | Mattias Samuelsson D | 22:51 | 2 | 5 | 7 |
11 points this season
2nd pair
12:21 together at 5-on-5
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Owen Power D | 26:12 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 8 | Olen Zellweger D | 18:11 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
11 points this season
3rd pair
4:03 together at 5-on-5
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73 | Zach Metsa D | 10:43 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| 46 | Louis Crevier D | 10:30 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
3 points this season
Power play unit 1
4:41 together on the power play
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | Noah Ostlund F | 21:40 | 2 | 5 | 7 |
| 6 | Zach Benson F | 21:21 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
| 22 | Jack Quinn F | 20:45 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
| 72 | Tage Thompson F | 20:06 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
| 26 | Rasmus Dahlin D | 26:27 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
34 points this season
Power play unit 2: No such unit in that game.
Penalty kill unit 1
1:26 together on the penalty kill
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Zach Benson F | 21:21 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
| 71 | Ryan McLeod F | 13:06 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 25 | Owen Power D | 26:12 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 23 | Mattias Samuelsson D | 22:51 | 2 | 5 | 7 |
22 points this season
Penalty kill unit 2
1:15 together on the penalty kill
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Josh Norris F | 13:43 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 29 | Beck Malenstyn F | 10:07 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| 8 | Olen Zellweger D | 18:11 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 73 | Zach Metsa D | 10:43 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
10 points this season
Goalies: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen #1 (Projected) · Colten Ellis #92 (Backup)
Swipe the rink to switch units
How we read the lines
From the NHL’s shift charts, the three forwards and the two defencemen who shared the most 5-on-5 ice time, ranked by time on ice. Coaches shuffle lines often, so treat them as a guide until puck drop. Power-play and penalty-kill units: the five (on the power play) or four (on the penalty kill) skaters who were on the ice together the longest in that situation. TOI: ice time in that game. G, A, P: goals, assists and points this season.
Photo credits (13)
- Cutter Gauthier · Sandro Halank , Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
- Leo Carlsson · Pwinger, CC BY-SA 4.0
- Jeff Malott · Kenneth C. Zirkel, CC BY 4.0
- Mikael Granlund · Lorie Shaull, CC BY-SA 2.0
- Beckett Sennecke · Sewageboy, CC BY-SA 4.0
- A.J. Greer · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
- Sam Colangelo · Mike Zitek/AHL, CC BY 2.0
- Alex Killorn · Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 3.0
- Jackson LaCombe · Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
- Travis Mitchell · TheAHL, CC BY 4.0
- Lukáš Dostál · Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.5
- Ville Husso · Fabien Perissinotto, CC BY-SA 4.0
- Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen · CloutsnChara Sports Cards, CC BY 3.0
Goalie duel
Projected
Goalie duelProjected from recent starts · confirmed at puck drop
Teams do not name their goalie before the game. We expect the No. 1 unless his team played the night before, when the back-up usually starts; last season that call was right about two times in three. Our win chances do not depend on it.
Photo credits (2)
- Lukas Dostal · Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.5
- Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen · CloutsnChara Sports Cards, CC BY 3.0
Who scores
Anytime goal, overtime included
Beckett SenneckeANA · RW · 6 G in 11 GP · 11 GP6231%3.21- Jack QuinnBUF · RW · 5 G in 10 GP · 10 GP5728%3.63
- Tage ThompsonBUF · C · 5 G in 10 GP · 10 GP5427%3.71
- Tim WasheANA · C · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3321%4.82
Leo CarlssonANA · C · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3320%4.93
Frank VatranoANA · RW · 2 G in 7 GP · 7 GP2220%5.11
Cutter GauthierANA · LW · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3319%5.19- Olen ZellwegerBUF · D · 2 G in 6 GP · 6 GP2318%5.49
- Josh NorrisBUF · C · 2 G in 9 GP · 9 GP2217%5.91
- Owen PowerBUF · D · 2 G in 10 GP · 10 GP2315%6.55
The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.
Photo credits (4)
- Beckett Sennecke · Sewageboy, CC BY-SA 4.0
- Leo Carlsson · Pwinger, CC BY-SA 4.0
- Frank Vatrano · Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0
- Cutter Gauthier · Sandro Halank , Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
Who will win Anaheim Ducks vs Buffalo Sabres?
Our model makes Anaheim Ducks 55% favourites at home against Buffalo Sabres, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.
Anaheim Ducks have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 2.4 and allowing 4.0 goals a game over that stretch. Buffalo Sabres have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 3.4 and allowing 3.6 goals a game over that stretch.
Anaheim Ducks sit 12th in the Western Conference, while Buffalo Sabres sit 13th in the Eastern Conference.
Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Anaheim Ducks rate −0.24 and Buffalo Sabres −0.31 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.07 goals to Anaheim Ducks. Home ice is worth about 0.24 goals a game in this league.
About 20% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Anaheim Ducks win it in regulation only 45% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 55%.
Our own lines for this game: Anaheim Ducks −1.5 on the puck line (30%) and 6.5 total goals, with the under at 53% (6.3 projected).
Anaheim Ducks to win, overtime and shootout included (55%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.
Team leaders
- Points
- Goals
- Assists
- Penalty minutes
Season totals in this competition from the scoresheets so far (10 games per team); current squads only.
Photo credits (3)
- Leo Carlsson · Pwinger, CC BY-SA 4.0
- Beckett Sennecke · Sewageboy, CC BY-SA 4.0
- A.J. Greer · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Recent form
W win · OTL loss in overtime or a shootout · L loss in regulation
Head to head
No recent meetings on record.
Also scheduled
Other games that day
- · KHLNovosibirsk – Magnitogorsk64%
- · KHLYekaterinburg – Nizhny Novgorod50%
- · KHLCherepovets – Spartak Moscow54%
- · MestisIPK – KeuPa67%
- · MestisKettera – Pyry57%
- · MestisTUTO – K-Vantaa63%
- · SHLRögle – Malmö54%
- · SHLTimrå – Växjö54%
- · SHLSkellefteå – Linköping70%
- · DELAugsburger Panther – Löwen Frankfurt55%
- · National LeagueLugano – Lausanne54%
- · AHLHamilton Hammers – Hartford Wolf Pack54%
