Mestis

TUTO vs Kettera prediction

TUTO8–1–1 · Home Kettera3–7–2 · Away03:30 PM UTCOct 23

67%win chance incl. overtime33%

Our pick

67%TUT67%TUT

TUTO to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.50 · projected 3–2

TUTO are the pick at 67% to beat Kettera, with a projected 3–2 final score.

After 60 minutes

TUTTUTO in 60'

55%

Tied → OTTied → OT

20%

KETKettera in 60'

25%

Game flow

TUT 3.1 · KET 2.0 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.8–0.7

P2 · 0.8–0.7

P3 · 1.5–0.6

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)TUTO67%1.50
Regulation result (60 minutes)TUTO55%1.81
Puck lineKettera +1.557%1.76
Total goalsUnder 5.556%1.79
Both teams to scoreYes83%1.21

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

TUTO

67%fair 1.50

Regulation result (60 minutes)

TUTO

55%fair 1.81

Puck line

Kettera +1.5

57%fair 1.76

Total goals

Under 5.5

56%fair 1.79

Both teams to score

Yes

83%fair 1.21

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

E. ValilaTUT · 10 G in 7 GP · 7 GP10945%2.21
E. LaurellKET · 5 G in 8 GP · 8 GP5326%3.89
S. MarkkulaTUT · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP41023%4.43
E. HapponenTUT · 3 G in 5 GP · 5 GP3622%4.49
T. VuoriTUT · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4422%4.52
R. TurunenTUT · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4321%4.76
L. TiihonenKET · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4119%5.17
F. ViitaKET · 1 G in 5 GP · 5 GP1113%7.99
J. LehtinenKET · 2 G in 12 GP · 12 GP2112%8.43
S. SalmelaKET · 1 G in 6 GP · 6 GP1012%8.57

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win TUTO vs Kettera?

TUTO are the pick at 67% to beat Kettera, with a projected 3–2 final score.

TUTO come into this home game as clear favourites, and the model puts their win probability at 67%. The gap is built on two very different recent runs: TUTO have taken all 5 of their last 5, while Kettera have managed 1 win in 5. The table reflects that split, with TUTO 3rd and Kettera 9th.

Form goes beyond results. TUTO have averaged 4.8 goals scored and 2.2 conceded across their winning stretch, whereas Kettera have produced 0.8 a game and given up 1.8. Adjusting for the strength of opponents faced, TUTO rate +0.36 goals per game against an average team and Kettera −0.32, an edge of 0.68 goals to TUTO before home advantage is added. Home ice in this league is worth about 0.44 goals a game, which pushes the balance further toward the hosts.

The head-to-head is thin but one-sided: the teams have met once recently, and TUTO won it 6–3 on 2026-09-26. Inside regulation the model gives TUTO 55% to close it out in 60 minutes and sets the chance of a tie after three periods at 20%, with overtime and a shootout deciding it from there. The market reads the game the same way, pricing TUTO at 66% on the moneyline once the bookmaker margin is removed across 8 bookmakers, close to the model's number.

Kettera's case rests on keeping the game tight rather than on outscoring the hosts. Their recent games have been low-scoring at 1.8 conceded per outing, and a 20% chance of a tie after regulation shows the model does not treat a one-goal margin as unlikely. Still, the combination of TUTO's scoring rate, the ratings gap and home ice makes the visitors' route to a result narrow.

The projected score of 3–2, with 5.3 goals expected, sits just under the 5.5 line, and the under lands 56% of the time on our numbers. On the puck line, TUTO −1.5 comes in 43%, so a one-goal TUTO win is the central scenario and the bigger margin is the less likely outcome. The moneyline price of 66% for TUTO against the model's 67% leaves little disagreement between the two.

TUTO to win, overtime and shootout included, at 67%, with a projected score of 3–2.