Mestis

RoKi vs KeuPa prediction

RoKi7–5–0 · Home KeuPa5–6–2 · Away05:00 PMOct 24

66%win chance incl. overtime34%

Our pick

66%ROK66%ROK

RoKi to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.51 · projected 3–2

RoKi are the pick at home against KeuPa: a 66% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

ROKRoKi in 60'

55%

Tied → OTTied → OT

20%

KEUKeuPa in 60'

25%

Game flow

ROK 3.4 · KEU 2.5 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.2–0.8

P2 · 0.9–0.6

P3 · 1.3–1.2

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)RoKi66%1.51
Regulation result (60 minutes)RoKi55%1.83
Puck lineKeuPa +1.558%1.71
Total goalsOver 5.552%1.91
Both teams to scoreYes87%1.15

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

RoKi

66%fair 1.51

Regulation result (60 minutes)

RoKi

55%fair 1.83

Puck line

KeuPa +1.5

58%fair 1.71

Total goals

Over 5.5

52%fair 1.91

Both teams to score

Yes

87%fair 1.15

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

V. SavolainenROK · 7 G in 11 GP · 11 GP7635%2.89
T. AlankoROK · 5 G in 11 GP · 11 GP5525%3.94
M. JarvenpaaKEU · 6 G in 12 GP · 12 GP6525%4.02
E. KaarelaROK · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4324%4.09
M. MikkolaROK · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4324%4.22
A. WolinKEU · 5 G in 12 GP · 12 GP5421%4.69
K. WinqvistKEU · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4321%4.72
J. ManninenROK · 2 G in 6 GP · 6 GP2219%5.19
N. KetonenKEU · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4317%5.97
E. HuttuKEU · 2 G in 7 GP · 7 GP2114%6.97

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win RoKi vs KeuPa?

RoKi are the pick at home against KeuPa: a 66% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

RoKi have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 3.2 and allowing 3.2 goals a game over that stretch. KeuPa have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.4 and allowing 2.6 goals a game over that stretch.

RoKi sit 5th, while KeuPa sit 7th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, RoKi rate +0.19 and KeuPa −0.19 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.38 goals to RoKi. Home ice is worth about 0.48 goals a game in this league.

About 20% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why RoKi win it in regulation only 55% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 66%.

These teams have met 1 time recently (RoKi 1, KeuPa 0); the latest finished KeuPa 2–5 RoKi on 2026-09-26.

The betting market agrees: once the bookmaker margin is removed it prices RoKi at 68% on the moneyline across 6 bookmakers.

Against the market lines, RoKi −1.5 on the puck line comes in 42% of the time on our numbers, and the over 5.5 goals lands 52% against a projected 6.1 goals.

RoKi to win, overtime and shootout included (66%). Projected score: 3–2.