Mestis

KeuPa vs Kiekko-Pojat prediction

KeuPa6–6–2 · Home Kiekko-Pojat6–6–2 · Away05:00 PMOct 31

56%win chance incl. overtime44%

Our pick

56%KEU56%KEU

KeuPa to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.77 · projected 3–2

KeuPa are the pick at home against Kiekko-Pojat: a 56% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

KEUKeuPa in 60'

46%

Tied → OTTied → OT

20%

KIEKiekko-Pojat in 60'

34%

Game flow

KEU 3.2 · KIE 2.8 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.9–1.0

P2 · 0.8–0.7

P3 · 1.4–1.1

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)KeuPa56%1.77
Regulation result (60 minutes)KeuPa46%2.17
Puck lineKiekko-Pojat +1.569%1.44
Total goalsOver 5.555%1.83
Both teams to scoreYes90%1.11

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

KeuPa

56%fair 1.77

Regulation result (60 minutes)

KeuPa

46%fair 2.17

Puck line

Kiekko-Pojat +1.5

69%fair 1.44

Total goals

Over 5.5

55%fair 1.83

Both teams to score

Yes

90%fair 1.11

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

J. TaskulaKIE · 8 G in 13 GP · 13 GP8731%3.25
M. JarvenpaaKEU · 6 G in 13 GP · 13 GP6628%3.51
J. JanhonenKIE · 6 G in 11 GP · 11 GP6427%3.69
A. WolinKEU · 5 G in 13 GP · 13 GP5225%4.08
K. WinqvistKEU · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4324%4.13
H. KarjalainenKIE · 6 G in 14 GP · 14 GP6624%4.16
J. LohisaloKIE · 5 G in 13 GP · 13 GP5423%4.41
T. KokkolaKIE · 5 G in 13 GP · 13 GP5623%4.42
N. KetonenKEU · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4119%5.15
E. HuttuKEU · 2 G in 8 GP · 8 GP2117%6.06

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win KeuPa vs Kiekko-Pojat?

KeuPa are the pick at home against Kiekko-Pojat: a 56% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

KeuPa have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 3.6 and allowing 2.4 goals a game over that stretch. Kiekko-Pojat have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.6 and allowing 2.4 goals a game over that stretch.

KeuPa sit 7th, while Kiekko-Pojat sit 5th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, KeuPa rate −0.16 and Kiekko-Pojat −0.08 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.08 goals to Kiekko-Pojat. Home ice is worth about 0.48 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives KeuPa 46% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 20%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

These teams have met 2 times recently (KeuPa 1, Kiekko-Pojat 1); the latest finished Kiekko-Pojat 3–2 KeuPa on 2026-10-08.

Our own lines for this game: KeuPa −1.5 on the puck line (31%) and 5.5 total goals, with the over at 55% (6.2 projected).

KeuPa to win, overtime and shootout included (56%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.