NHL

St. Louis Blues vs Boston Bruins prediction

St. Louis Blues5–4–1 · Home Boston Bruins8–2–1 · Away12:00 AM UTCOct 30

47%win chance incl. overtime53%

Our pick

53%BOS53%BOS

Boston Bruins to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.87 · projected 2–3

The numbers side with Boston Bruins (53%) on the road against St. Louis Blues, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

After 60 minutes

LOUSt. Louis Blues in 60'

37%

Tied → OTTied → OT

20%

BOSBoston Bruins in 60'

43%

Game flow

LOU 2.9 · BOS 3.1 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.8–0.9

P2 · 0.9–1.1

P3 · 1.2–1.1

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Boston Bruins53%1.87
Regulation result (60 minutes)Boston Bruins43%2.32
Puck lineSt. Louis Blues +1.572%1.39
Total goalsUnder 6.555%1.82
Both teams to scoreYes91%1.10

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Boston Bruins

53%fair 1.87

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Boston Bruins

43%fair 2.32

Puck line

St. Louis Blues +1.5

72%fair 1.39

Total goals

Under 6.5

55%fair 1.82

Both teams to score

Yes

91%fair 1.10

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Lines

Lines from the last game · may change

St. Louis Blues

Last game: Oct 22

Forwards

1st line14 min together
81LWHollowayDylan
18CThomasRobert
21RWSnuggerudJimmy
2nd line13 min together
89LWBuchnevichPavel
63CNeighboursJake
15RWDvorskyDalibor
3rd line11 min together
77LWMcMichaelConnor
83CMcTavishMason
29RWBerggrenJonatan
4th line10 min together
22LWSuterPius
41CKaskimakiAleksanteri
28RWStenbergOtto

Defence

1st pair10 min together
6DBrobergPhilip
72DBarronJustin
2nd pair15 min together
17DFowlerCam
25DCarloBrandon
3rd pair6 min together
55DParaykoColton
36DJiricekAdam

Goalies

30ProjectedHoferJoel
50BackupBinningtonJ.

Boston Bruins

Last game: Oct 22

Forwards

1st line13 min together
88LWPastrnakDavid 18CZachaPavel 10RWPeterkaJJ
2nd line12 min together
39LWGeekieMorgan 93CMintenFraser 92RWKhusnutdinovMarat
3rd line10 min together
11LWMittelstadtCasey 44CHagensJames 28RWLindholmElias
4th line9 min together
84LWJeannotTanner 47CKastelicMark 51RWPoitrasMatthew

Defence

1st pair17 min together
91DZadorovNikita 17DBorgenWill
2nd pair16 min together
27DLindholmHampus 73DMcAvoyCharlie
3rd pair16 min together
6DLohreiMason 42DBrunetFrederic

Goalies

How we read the lines: from the NHL’s shift charts, the three forwards and the two defencemen who shared the most 5-on-5 ice time, ranked by time on ice. Coaches shuffle lines often, so treat them as a guide until puck drop.

David Pastrnak: Bostonbruinsfan22, CC BY-SA 4.0; Pavel Zacha: Lisa Gansky from New York, NY, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0; JJ Peterka: Sandro Halank , Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; Morgan Geekie: TheAHL, CC BY 2.0; Fraser Minten: Bardonvtn, CC BY 4.0; Casey Mittelstadt: CloutsnChara Sports Cards, CC BY 3.0; James Hagens: Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; Elias Lindholm: Benjamin Reed, CC BY-SA 2.0; Tanner Jeannot: Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0; Matthew Poitras: Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; Nikita Zadorov: m_kania, CC BY 2.0; Will Borgen: Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; Hampus Lindholm: mark6mauno, CC BY-SA 2.0; Charlie McAvoy: CloutsnChara Sports Cards, CC BY 3.0; Mason Lohrei: Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

Goalie duel

Projected

Projected from recent starts · confirmed at puck drop

Joel Hofer LOU

.921 save percentage

2.17 GAA · 4–2–1 · 1 shutout · 7 starts

Jeremy Swayman BOS

.928 save percentage

1.98 GAA · 6–1–1 · 1 shutout · 8 starts

Teams do not name their goalie before the game. We expect the No. 1 unless his team played the night before, when the back-up usually starts; last season that call was right about two times in three. Our win chances do not depend on it.

Photo credits: Jeremy Swayman: Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

David PastrnakBOS · RW · 6 G in 10 GP · 10 GP6930%3.38
J. SnuggerudLOU · 6 G in 10 GP · 10 GP6429%3.49
M. McTavishLOU · 6 G in 10 GP · 10 GP6628%3.59
Matthew PoitrasBOS · C · 4 G in 8 GP · 8 GP4523%4.35
D. HollowayLOU · 3 G in 6 GP · 6 GP3721%4.65
Elias LindholmBOS · C · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4421%4.69
JJ PeterkaBOS · RW · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4320%4.93
Fraser MintenBOS · C · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4320%5.05
J. NeighboursLOU · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3417%5.75
P. SuterLOU · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3417%5.96

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Photo credits: David Pastrnak: Bostonbruinsfan22, CC BY-SA 4.0; Matthew Poitras: Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; Elias Lindholm: Benjamin Reed, CC BY-SA 2.0; JJ Peterka: Sandro Halank , Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; Fraser Minten: Bardonvtn, CC BY 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

All NHL goal scorer picks today

Who will win St. Louis Blues vs Boston Bruins?

The numbers side with Boston Bruins (53%) on the road against St. Louis Blues, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

St. Louis Blues have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 4.2 and allowing 3.0 goals a game over that stretch. Boston Bruins have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 4.4 and allowing 1.8 goals a game over that stretch.

St. Louis Blues sit 9th in the Western Conference, while Boston Bruins sit 2nd in the Eastern Conference.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, St. Louis Blues rate +0.15 and Boston Bruins +0.61 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.46 goals to Boston Bruins. Home ice is worth about 0.25 goals a game in this league.

About 20% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Boston Bruins win it in regulation only 43% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 53%.

Our own lines for this game: Boston Bruins −1.5 on the puck line (28%) and 6.5 total goals, with the under at 55% (6.2 projected).

Boston Bruins to win, overtime and shootout included (53%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.